E-commerce is undergoing the biggest slowdown in over a decade as a result of tariffs on imported goods and related economic uncertainty, according to a new report from a management consulting firm.
"For the first time since the survey's 2012 inception, consumers report that their online purchases have declined across all product categories except groceries, which remain flat," AlixPartners said in a 2025 trends report released Tuesday based on a survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers.
The largest declines in online shopping were for big-ticket items, including furniture, home furnishings such as rugs and window treatments, large electronics and sporting goods. The shares of consumers self-reporting recent purchases of these items fell by double-digit amounts since the July 2024 survey, according to the report.
- Cosmetics: 34% purchased in the past 12 months (down from 44% in last year's survey)
- Office/home-office supplies: 24% (down from 37%)
- Sporting goods: 18% (down from 30%)
- Furniture: 18% (down from 28%)
- Home furnishing: 18% (down from 28%)
- Large electronics: 15% (down from 25%)
President Donald Trump's tariff policies are the main driver of the change, according to the report. "Elevated consumer awareness of tariffs is clearly flowing through into buying decisions," Chris Considine, a partner in AlixPartners’ retail practice, said in a release.
While the Trump administration has paused some tariffs while it tries to negotiate deals with trading partners, the U.S. is enforcing a blanket tariff of 10%, higher reciprocal tariffs on specific countries and other levies. Importers were paying an effective tariff rate of 21% as of May 11, according to a Wednesday report from Maersk, a Danish shipping company. That's up from 5% in November.
Online shoppers are already seeing these tariffs show up in the cost of items they're adding to their carts. That's especially true for items imported from China and other Asian countries that are subject to higher levies.
"Gen Z shoppers, by no coincidence, are also the most likely to purchase from overseas e-retailers such as Shein and Temu, which feature low prices and lengthy, uncertain shipping times. Those Chinese e-retailers have seen their U.S. sales and web traffic plunge following the imposition of stiff new tariffs and the closing of a loophole for low-priced goods," the AlixPartners report said.
Overall, 34% of surveyed shoppers report responding to tariffs by delaying purchases, hoping to wait out the uncertain price environment. Meanwhile, 28% have pushed up purchase timelines to get ahead of levies, according to the survey data, which was collected in May and early June.
AlixPartners offered a generally negative outlook for online shopping. "There must be some stakeholders in the e-commerce ecosphere that are feeling cheerful, but you won't find them in the numbers in this report," the firm wrote.
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