Elon Musk's SpaceX is preparing for its stock market debut. Experts believe that this event could be the catalyst needed to reignite interest in companies listing their shares after years of initial public offerings, or IPOs, becoming less frequent.
The number of IPOs — the process of private companies first selling their stock to the public to raise funds — has seen a dramatic drop-off over the past five years.
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But earlier this month, SpaceX — which provides rocket launch services, Starlink's satellite-based internet and, following a February merger with xAI, large language models and social media — confidentially filed for its IPO with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
SpaceX is seeking a valuation of around $2 trillion. That would make it the sixth-largest publicly traded company, trailing only Magnificent Seven members Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. If successful, the IPO would also serve as an incentive for other privately held companies to follow suit.
After 2021's IPO record, companies have delayed timelines
In 2021, a record 1,035 companies went public. Despite pandemic-era supply chain disruptions that fueled inflation, the Federal Reserve maintained low interest rates, ending the year with an effective federal funds rate of 0.08%. Those low rates gave a boost to companies looking to take advantage of access to cheaper capital. In turn, that generated higher valuations for their public debuts.
As a result, a flurry of popular firms held IPOs that year, including Coinbase, Rivian, Robinhood and SoFi.
However, in response to decades-high inflation, the Fed was forced to raise rates 11 times from 2022 through 2023 and has held them steady since. That was the fastest series of interest rate hikes since the 1980s. Alongside an influx of funding from private sources, companies were discouraged from going public, and the IPO market virtually dried up.
The number of IPOs fell by nearly 83% in 2022, to 181. In 2023, only 154 companies went public.
But following that slowdown, and in the wake of the SpaceX filing, prediction markets like Kalshi have started to show that expectations for popular companies making their public debuts in 2026 are on the rise.
SpaceX's success could trigger a rush of IPOs
Through the first quarter of 2026, 104 companies went public, putting this year on pace for the most IPOs since 2021's record high.
If the Musk-led firm is successful in its goal of raising $50 to $75 billion in its public offering, it could serve as a green light for other private AI companies that have already become household names. That includes Anthropic and ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, both of which are rumored to be eyeing IPOs this year.
"Since the big pullback in 2022 and '23, I think [a successful IPO for SpaceX] could definitely open the door," says Jennifer Horton, executive vice president at CapWealth.
Where People Are Investing Right Now
Another factor is Musk's popularity. While institutional investors are motivated by companies' financial well-being, retail investors often turn to sentiment as a gauge for investing. As the CEO of Tesla, SpaceX and Neuralink and the world's richest person, Musk commands significant media attention, capital and influence.
"For the retail side of things, I think [the IPO] will give a nice insight into investor appetite," Horton says. "Is it driven by how much they believe in Musk or by the financials of the actual company?"
SpaceX is reportedly reserving up to 30% of its IPO shares for retail investors. Strong interest from that cohort could factor into other companies pursuing public listings this year.
Opportunities beyond AI
The rebound in IPOs is already extending beyond AI. Amazon-backed X-energy — a developer of next-generation nuclear reactors and proprietary nuclear fuel — debuted on the Nasdaq on April 24 and gained 27% in its first two days of trading.
According to Kalshi, sandwich chain Jersey Mike's currently has a 92% chance of making its public debut this year, while the odds of an IPO for crypto exchange Kraken stand at 62%. Hawkeye 360 — a defense technology company — could go public as soon as early May, while a listing from beverage maker Liquid Death is also reputed for 2026.
"Anthropic and the OpenAI are the [next] ones that everyone's focused on," Horton says. "These mega-cap tech IPOs are splashy. But I think it could trickle down... pushing momentum into other areas."
As examples, she mentions potential IPOs for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac following years of government conservatorship. Public listings for those two government-sponsored secondary mortgage market providers could serve as a boon for financial stocks, which have performed second-worst among the S&P 500's 11 sectors this year.
But Horton also cautions that the same hurdles that caused the slowdown after 2021 could resurface. "If interest rates stay higher for longer, that could compress valuations," she says. "If there's less money on the table, that might make [companies] delay."
While the Fed is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady in April, inflation has increased from 2.4% in March 2025 to 3.3% in March 2026. With the Iran war contributing to higher prices for everything from gasoline and plastics to airfare and food, the central bank may have to revisit rate hikes if consumer costs begin to spiral. If the Fed does begin raising rates, that could dissuade other companies from following in SpaceX's footsteps.
What investors should expect from IPOs
With many prominent IPOs expected in 2026, investors considering whether to buy shares upon companies' debuts should be aware of the risks.
"Historically, stock performance in the first year post-IPO has been a mixed bag... with a large minority delivering excess returns in their first year of trading, while a slight majority deliver negative returns," Thomas Shipp, head of equity research at LPL Financial, wrote in a post on April 23.
One reason, according to Shipp, is that everyday investors rarely have access to offer prices. "The investment banks often allocate much of the shares they have underwritten to large institutional investors," he wrote. Additionally, "taking a private company public also creates a liquidity event for existing shareholders. Insider ownership stakes may be sold... which adds to expected selling pressure post-IPO."
These risks don't mean investors should avoid IPOs altogether. Rather, they should approach them carefully. Citing 30 years of IPO data, Shipp noted that there have been a wide range of outcomes, from tremendous success stories to utter failures.
"We suggest investors proceed with any IPO investment with caution and expect to experience a great deal of volatility," he wrote.
Unpredictability aside, Horton expects some retail investors to act impulsively when it comes to SpaceX's IPO. "There's a lot of Elon Musk fans out there," she says. "And I think a lot of people will throw caution to the wind just because they want to see what's going to happen."
