Weekly Chartstopper: January 16, 2026
Weekly Chartstopper: January 16, 2026
This Week
Geopolitics were front and center this week, so economic data (understandably) was overshadowed. But it was a pretty good week in data:
- Headline CPI (2.7% YoY) and core CPI (2.6% YoY) were both unchanged in December, as tariff-related inflation appears to have slowed, with the contribution from core goods unchanged from November and down slightly from its recent highs in August and September.
- Retail sales (+0.6% m/m) rebounded in November on broad-based gains.
- Manufacturing output (+0.2% m/m) rose more than expected (-0.1%) in December.
That stable inflation and resilient spending and production data meant market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year fell to 45 basis points (bps) from nearly 60 just over a week ago.
Elsewhere this week, fourth-quarter earnings season kicked off with the big banks, but the biggest news came from TSMC, which announced plans to increase capex as much as 37% this year and to “increase… capacity significantly” in 2028-29 given AI demand.
So, the net result of geopolitical events, reduced Fed rate cut expectations, but positive signs for AI demand was a 1% decline for the Nasdaq-100® this week (blue line), and an approximately 5bp rise in 10-year Treasury yields over 4.2% (black line).
Next Week
Here are the top events I’m watching next week:
- November PCE inflation and spending on Thursday
- Prelim. January PMIs on Friday
- Revised Q3 GDP on Thursday
- Supreme Court decisions on Tuesday (if IEEPA tariffs decided)
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