Have Americans' retirement savings soared since President Donald Trump was inaugurated? That was a claim made Tuesday in the president's State of the Union address.
"Since I took office, the typical 401(k) balance is up by at least $30,000. That's a lot of money," President Donald Trump said. "Because the stock market has done so well, setting all those records, your 401(k)s are way up."
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The White House has not substantiated the claim with a citation of a specific source. While 401(k) balances are rising and even notching new records, industry data points to a potentially smaller increase than what was cited in the State of the Union speech.
According to financial firm Fidelity, the average 401(k) balance was $144,400 at the end of September 2025. That number has increased by about $12,700 (or 9.6%) since the end of 2024, when the average balance was $131,700.
While we don't have day-by-day data on the value of Americans' 401(k)s, Fidelity's widely-used quarterly report on retirement savings trends provides a basis for comparison. In this case, Money compared average balances from the fourth quarter of 2024, about three weeks before Trump was sworn in, until the third quarter of 2025, the most recently available data.
It's unclear if the president was referring to average balances or median balances. "Typical" often refers to a median, though Americans' 401(k) balances are usually reported as averages. (Median balances would be lower, since many 401(k) accounts hold relatively modest amounts.)
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How much are 401(k)s up since the inauguration?
Stocks have continued to rise since Fidelity last updated its data on the average 401(k) through Sept. 30. Since then, the S&P 500 has returned about 3.7%, suggesting that 401(k) balances would be somewhat higher now.
In his speech Tuesday night, Trump aimed to take credit for recent stock market performance, with another nod to retirement balances. "The stock market has set 53 all-time record highs since the election — think of that, one year — boosting pensions, 401(k)s and retirement accounts," he said.
The president's claim of a $30,000 increase in 401(k) balances appears to be overstated.
Since the inauguration, the S&P 500 has returned about 14.9%.
Even if 401(k) balances have increased just as much — which is not actually the case as 401(k)s contain a mix of bonds, funds and stocks — that wouldn't be enough for a $30,000 increase, based on Fidelity's average balance figures.
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A 15% increase on $131,700 — the average balance right before Trump took office — would only be $19,755, over $10,000 short. It's possible that people have increased their contributions, however Fidelity had not reported evidence of that through the third quarter of 2025, when it reported that 401(k) savings rates "remained consistent at 14.2% for the second quarter in a row."
