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Fifth anniversaries are traditionally celebrated with wood, but five years after mortgage rates hit an all-time low, some homeowners are probably wishing for stone, with a rate etched in it.

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About a million Canadians got the rate of a lifetime on a mortgage in 2021, but today find themselves married to homes that will cost them a lot more to carry over the next half-decade.

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Discounted mortgage rates are hard to track with certainty, but around this time half a decade ago five-year, fixed-rate mortgages were as close to zero per cent as you can get, with rates as low as 1.39 per cent being offered in February 2021, according to ratehub.ca. The discounted rate is closer to 3.84 per cent today.

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The mortgage renewal story has been playing out for the better part of two years, but Shawn Stillman, co-founder of Mortgage Outlet Inc., said he still has many clients with rates below 1.49 per cent who are facing significant increases.

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The biggest concern is the potential for mortgage defaults, as people just cannot afford higher payments.

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Kathy Catsiliras, vice-president of analytics consulting at Equifax Canada, said mortgage delinquencies, which include non-payment for 90 days or more, have reached 0.26 per cent based on the balances of all outstanding mortgages. That’s a small number, but it’s up about 30 per cent from a year ago.

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“They are going to have to renew an interest rate they had before, and that is going to create a lot of stress for Canadians, specifically in hot spot regions like Ontario and British Columbia,” said Catsiliras.

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Context is everything. I remember buying my first house back in the late 1990s, and a Financial Post colleague who had reported on double-digit mortgage rates marvelled that I was able to get a 5.65 per cent rate. Of course, my house was a lot cheaper than what buyers face today.

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“I remember my parents having something like an 18 per cent back in the early 1980s,” said Catsiliras with a chuckle.

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The payment shock comes with the cost of living rising, and it’s not offset by wages increasing at the same rate, she said.

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She noted that on top of the one million Canadians facing mortgage renewals this year, about 60 per cent of mortgages outstanding will have come due over 2025 and 2026.

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The Bank of Canada has suggested that one-third of mortgage holders renewing this year will face some sort of mortgage payment increase. Many who are not have simply stretched their amortization out and will take years longer to be mortgage-free.

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Faced with a new rate reality, some consumers are hoping for shorter-term mortgages, in the hope that rates will head back down again.

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Vince Gaetano, the principal owner of Owl Mortgage, said he is seeing many three-year terms from his clients these days.