Social Security recipients hoping for a big cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, next year may be disappointed.
As of right now, the 2027 Social Security COLA is expected to stay flat at 2.8%, according to an early estimate by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonprofit advocacy group. That’s the same adjustment that recipients saw for this year.
“A 2.8% COLA would provide some help, but for many retirees it won’t feel like a significant increase,” says Shannon Benton, executive director of TSCL.
Based on the average payment, a 2027 COLA of 2.8% may translate to an increase of only $50 to $60 per month, Benton says, noting that rising health care costs — and especially Medicare premiums — could eat into the modest raise, if not negate it entirely.
The group updates its COLA estimates each month based on fresh inflation data from the Department of Labor. On Wednesday, the department said the annual inflation rate for February was 2.4%.
However, the Social Security Administration bases its COLA on a slightly different inflation metric, one developed for clerical and wage workers, known as the CPI-W. That rate was 2.2% for February.
The COLA affects the monthly payments received by over 70 million Americans, including more than 53 million retirees.
When is the COLA announced?
TSCL’s estimate comes seven months ahead of the official announcement from the Social Security Administration. We won’t know until October what the actual COLA for 2027 will be, so the March estimate is all but certain to change.
The U.S. government calculates the final COLA rate based on the CPI-W for July, August and September. The inflation rates for September are scheduled to be released on Oct. 14, and the Social Security Administration usually announces the COLA later that day.
Due to unpredictable fluctuations in the inflation rate, the earlier the estimate, the less accurate it may be.
One major question among analysts and older Americans is how the war in Iran will affect the COLA. Oil and gas prices surged following joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran starting two weeks ago. Those increased prices were not reflected in the latest inflation report — or the COLA estimates.
“Watch those oil prices,” says Mary Johnson, a retired Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, noting that the inflation rate used to calculate the COLA is more sensitive to swings in oil and gas prices than the regular inflation rate.
On top of that, it’s not clear whether today's rising gas prices will last long enough to affect the COLA calculation later this year, meaning folks will have to deal with increased expenses now without any guarantee that higher benefits are on the way.
This blind spot reflects longstanding critiques against the methodology the federal government uses to calculate the increase in benefits. Advocates have long argued that despite the annual adjustment, payments still don’t keep up with the rising expenses for older Americans.
Retirees have been feeling the pinch, too. In a 2025 survey by TSCL, nearly 6 in 10 older Americans said they were concerned inflation would drive up their spending and deplete their retirement savings and benefits.
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