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But single-family homes are another story. 

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“The demographics across the country do support single-family houses in a huge way,” he said. “There is just no further to go down.” 

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Boaz Feiner, a principal of Markham, Ont.-based Geranium Homes, said his company has four projects on the go right now, but, like many builders, it has more in the pipeline and has been waiting on the sidelines for the market to break in their direction. 

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“It’s hard to push water up a hill waiting for the market, but conditions are already changing,” he said. 

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A veteran of almost three decades in the market, Feiner said one of the major issues the market has faced has been the unknown, and that is starting to clear. 

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He said the federal and provincial governments had created expectations for market changes, such as development charge deferrals, that had not been enacted. Now, that uncertainty has been removed, and developers no longer need to pay those charges until homes are occupied. 

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“That’s a check mark, an unknown is a known,” he said, adding that a joint federal government and Ontario agreement to remove the harmonized sales tax on new homes for all buyers will have a major impact on stabilizing the market. The tax break was previously only available to first-time buyers. 

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He said sales were already on the uptick before the announcement, although he emphasized that might be more applicable to the low-rise end of the market. 

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“People have been waiting on the sidelines to see what levers the government might pull,” said Feiner. 

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Despite more certainty on the policy side, Dan Eisner, chief executive of Calgary-based True North Mortgage, said consumers are now facing a new risk that for a little while at least seemed to be off the table: rate uncertainty.  But a conflict in the Middle East driving up oil and inflation seems to have put rising rates back on the table

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“Our clients are doing one of two things. They’re either flipping into a variable because the five-year fixed rates have really kind of spiked along with oil prices and bond yields,” he said. Or, he added, some will just wait on the sidelines.

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In just three to four weeks, five-year fixed rates have climbed 50 basis points, which means going with floating-rate debt tied to prime and Bank of Canada decisions, or maybe just waiting for long-term rates to come down. 

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Lower consumer demand could put additional downward pressure on prices. 

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“I can’t imagine a market that likes uncertainty. Yeah, that’s true for businesses and for homebuyers. They’re looking at this and saying, ‘What’s going to happen to oil prices? What’s going to happen to prime?’” said Eisner. 

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He also said the larger economy is a major factor in housing, and that trade with the United States could also impact housing down the road. 

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“Family income is the number one predictor of whether you buy a house or not. A person doesn’t buy a house if they don’t have a job, and they don’t buy a house if they’re worried about their job,” he said. 

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Brittany Kostov, senior director of sales with real estate company Zoocasa, said it’s really just too hard to grab the exact bottom or top of any market. 

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“We look at four stages: recovery, expansion, hyper-supply and then recession,” said Kostov. “Bottoms usually happen in a late recession phase when prices have already corrected and inventory is plentiful and buyers are still nervous. This is where several of our markets are today.” 

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She added that real estate differs sharply by market, but noted condos may be the exception, with corrections happening across the country. “Prices are declining gently, so a significant part of this reset has already happened,” said Kostov.