Chartstopper: May 21, 2026

Chartstopper: May 21, 2026

This Week

Once again, the Iran conflict was the big market mover, and there were several positive developments:

  1. President Trump posted he delayed attacks at the request of leaders in the region.
  2. President Trump said negotiations with Iran were in the “final stages.”
  3. That was followed by reports today that Iran is “reviewing” the latest peace deal.
  4. Iran’s Navy said it let 26 ships through the Strait of Hormuz in one day, including oil tankers.
  5. If the Strait stays mostly closed, though, NATO is weighing escorting ships through the Strait.

These developments helped push U.S. oil prices under $100 per barrel from almost $110 on Tuesday.

This week also saw two mega-cap earnings reports as first-quarter earnings season winds down:

  • NVDA reported 129% YOY earnings growth and projected Q2 sales will nearly double year-over-year… yet it’s down slightly today.
  • WMT earnings growth (8% YOY) was in line with expectations, but disappointed investors by leaving its guidance unchanged, warning that “consumers are going to feel more… pressure from higher fuel prices.”

The Fed was also worried about higher fuel prices, with the April minutes noting “a majoritysee hikes ahead if inflation continues “to run persistently above 2%.” Still, the consensus is to leave rates unchanged longer than previously thought.

With generally positive developments this week, the Nasdaq-100® is up 1% and 10-year Treasury yields are down a few basis points to 4.55%.

With generally positive developments this week, the Nasdaq-100® is up 1% and 10-year Treasury yields are down a few bp to 4.55%.

Next Week

Here are the top events I’m watching next week:

  • Tuesday: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (May)
  • Thursday: PCE Inflation (Apr.), Real Consumer Spending (Apr.), Real GDP (Q1 Revision)
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