Chartstopper: May 29, 2026
Chartstopper: May 29, 2026
This Week
As the Iran conflict passed the three-month mark, hopes for a resolution boosted markets this week.
The big news was reports of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran on a 60-day memorandum of understanding that includes:
- Extension of the ceasefire
- Reopening of Strait of Hormuz (toll-free)
- End of U.S. Naval blockade
- Iranian commitment not to pursue nuclear weapon
Importantly, it still needs President Trump’s approval, and he posted this morning that he’s “meeting now… to make a final determination.” The prospect for a deal has U.S. oil prices down from $95 per barrel earlier this week to under $90 – its low since mid-April.
Still, with oil prices about 30% higher than they were pre-conflict, this week’s data show oil has been pushing up inflation and squeezing consumers…
- Rising gasoline prices pushed headline PCE inflation to 3-year high in April. Headline PCE inflation rose to 3.8% year-over-year (YOY) in April from 3.5% in March as gasoline prices were up ~30% YOY. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, edged up to 3.3% YOY from 3.2%.
- Consumers cut savings rate to 4-year low to fund spending as real incomes fell in April. Consumers reduced their savings rate to 2.6% from 3.2% to support a 0.1% month-over-month (m/m) increase in real consumer spending as real disposable income fell 0.5% m/m, facing pressure from higher inflation.
For markets, progress on a peace deal trumped the inflation and spending data, with the Nasdaq-100® up 3% this week to a new record high and 10-year Treasury yields down over 10 basis points to 4.45%.
Next Week
Here are the top events I’m watching next week:
- Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
- Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings (Apr.)
- Wednesday: ISM Services PMI (May), ADP Private Jobs (May)
- Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims
- Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
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